Lin Qiao: Are OpenAI and Anthropic Overvalued? The Open-Source AI Reality | How Token Costs Will Fall 10x And Usage Will Explode 100x | The Future Is Not One AGI; It's Millions of Specialised Models

20VC

Jul 20, 2026

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Lin Qiao is the Co-Founder and CEO of Fireworks AI, the leading specialized intelligence and AI inference platform that last week raised $1.5BN at a $17BN valuation. With just 200 people, the company has hit $1BN in ARR and expects to reach $2BN before the end of the year. Prior to Fireworks, Lin spent several years at Meta, including on the founding team of PyTorch.

AGENDA:

  • Why Did Fireworks Bet on Inference When Everyone Else Was Chasing Training?

  • Can Open-Source Models Turn AI Infrastructure into a Commodity?

  • Should Enterprises Trust Chinese Open Models With Their Most Sensitive Data?

  • Will Model Progress Keep Moving This Fast—or Are We Nearing a Plateau?

  • Will the Multi-Model World Create a $100BN Routing Layer?

  • How Much Will AI Token Usage Explode Over the Next Two Years?

  • Will Token Costs Fall 10x—and Unleash 100x More Demand?

  • Does Fireworks Eventually Have to Build Its Own Data Centres?

  • What Is the Real Bottleneck Holding Back the AI Economy?

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