20VC: WTF Is Going On? 3 Outcomes for What Could Happen From Here; What Needs to Happen To Avoid Recession? Why Stagnation is Most Likely and What This Means for Startups and Venture & Why Switzerland Could Be a “House of Cards” with Fabrice Grinda

Posted on 9th May 2022 by Harry

Fabrice Grinda is the Founding Partner @ FJ Labs, with over 700 investments, Fabrice has had over 250 exits and built a portfolio including Alibaba, Coupang, Airbnb, Instacart, Flexport, and Delivery Hero, and many more. Prior to FJ Labs, Fabrice served as CEO for three multinational companies; including OLX, one of the largest websites in the world with over 300 million unique visitors per month. As a result of his incredible investing success, Fabrice was named the #1 Angel Investor in the world by Forbes.

In Today’s Episode with Fabrice Grinda:

1.) Everything Great Starts Small:

  • How did Fabrice make his way into the world of investing from founding 3 companies?
  • How does Fabrice feel about founders raising funds with external LPs?
  • Why does Fabrice feel that investing as an angel made him a better CEO?

2.) WTF is Going On: The Market Today

  • How does Fabrice assess what is happening in the market today?
  • What is causing the massive public market drops we are seeing?
  • How do inflation rates and interest rates have such an impact on where we are?
  • How much of this is a result of COVID, the shift to goods from services and supply chains?

3.) The Optimistic Case:

  • How does Fabrice think things could get better from here? What needs to happen?
  • What could the Fed do to enable this optimistic outcome to take place?
  • What would need to happen in geo-politics and Russia for this to happen?
  • What is the probability today of this optimistic case happening?

4.) The Great Stagnation:

  • How does Fabrice think the economy could go sideways from here?
  • What are the core drivers of this?
  • Why is this the most likely outcome of all? What is the probability of this happening?

5.) The Catastrophe:

  • How could this market get so much worse?
  • What level of interest rate change would cause this outcome to occur?
  • Why does Fabrice think that Switzerland is a “House of Cards”? What would this mean if Switzerland fell? What other European countries does Fabrice think are vulnerable?

6.) What this Means for Venture:

  • How will LPs respond to these differing situations?
  • How does this impact how Fabrice thinks about his rate of deployment?
  • What segment of the market is Fabrice most excited for; early or growth?

Mentioned in Today’s Episode with Fabrice Grinda:

Fabrice’s Favourite Book: Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind

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