20VC: WTF Is Going On? 3 Outcomes for What Could Happen From Here; What Needs to Happen To Avoid Recession? Why Stagnation is Most Likely and What This Means for Startups and Venture & Why Switzerland Could Be a “House of Cards” with Fabrice Grinda
Posted on 9th May 2022 by Harry
Fabrice Grinda is the Founding Partner @ FJ Labs, with over 700 investments, Fabrice has had over 250 exits and built a portfolio including Alibaba, Coupang, Airbnb, Instacart, Flexport, and Delivery Hero, and many more. Prior to FJ Labs, Fabrice served as CEO for three multinational companies; including OLX, one of the largest websites in the world with over 300 million unique visitors per month. As a result of his incredible investing success, Fabrice was named the #1 Angel Investor in the world by Forbes.
In Today’s Episode with Fabrice Grinda:
1.) Everything Great Starts Small:
How did Fabrice make his way into the world of investing from founding 3 companies?
How does Fabrice feel about founders raising funds with external LPs?
Why does Fabrice feel that investing as an angel made him a better CEO?
2.) WTF is Going On: The Market Today
How does Fabrice assess what is happening in the market today?
What is causing the massive public market drops we are seeing?
How do inflation rates and interest rates have such an impact on where we are?
How much of this is a result of COVID, the shift to goods from services and supply chains?
3.) The Optimistic Case:
How does Fabrice think things could get better from here? What needs to happen?
What could the Fed do to enable this optimistic outcome to take place?
What would need to happen in geo-politics and Russia for this to happen?
What is the probability today of this optimistic case happening?
4.) The Great Stagnation:
How does Fabrice think the economy could go sideways from here?
What are the core drivers of this?
Why is this the most likely outcome of all? What is the probability of this happening?
5.) The Catastrophe:
How could this market get so much worse?
What level of interest rate change would cause this outcome to occur?
Why does Fabrice think that Switzerland is a “House of Cards”? What would this mean if Switzerland fell? What other European countries does Fabrice think are vulnerable?
6.) What this Means for Venture:
How will LPs respond to these differing situations?
How does this impact how Fabrice thinks about his rate of deployment?
What segment of the market is Fabrice most excited for; early or growth?